Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Part II of Day Traders and Swing Traders and Options? Maybe!

Before every protective put trade it is possible to calculate
your anticipated maximum loss. Use the formula: (stock price
minus strike price) plus option price. For example, suppose you
will pay $30.00 for your stock, and you want no more than a $3.50
loss on the position. Then you would choose the $27.50 strike
put which costs $1.00. Following the formula, you take your
stock price ($30.00) and subtract the put’s strike price (27.50)
which leaves you $2.50. To this $2.50 loss, you then add the
amount you spent on the option ($1.00), which gives you a
combined, maximum loss of $3.50 for this position. You can set
your loss limit by the strike price of the put you buy and the
cost of the put. This formula will work every time. Remember,
stock loss, (stock price paid - strike price), plus option cost
(option price) equals maximum potential position loss.

The protective put strategy, when used correctly, will allow
investors to take advantage of the same opportunities that could
provide large potential gains, but without being exposed to the
extreme risks the position could potentially present. In these
scenarios, the protective put strategy deserves consideration.

For example, a stock in the process of a steep decline would be a
good opportunity to implement a protective put, when trying to
pick a bottom. Quite often, stocks experience bad news or break
down through a technical support level and trade down to seek a
new, lower trading range.

Everyone wants to find the bottom to buy and go long, catching
the technical rebound, or to start accumulating the stock at
lower levels for the longer term.

There is a potential for a very big reward if you pick the
“right” bottom. However, with the big potential gain comes the
big potential loss that is common in these types of risk/reward
scenarios. Here is a perfect opportunity to employ the protective
put strategy! It will provide protection against substantial
loss, while allowing room for potential gains if the stock should
bounce.

Remember, the protective put allows for a large potential upside
with a limited, fixed downside risk. If you feel that the stock
has bottomed out and is starting to consolidate, you purchase the
stock and then purchase the put at the same time as insurance
against further decline in the stock.

If you are right, and the stock runs back up, the stock profit
will well exceed the price paid for the put. Once the stock
trades back up, consolidates, and develops its new trading range,
the need for the protective put is over. At this time, if you
still like the stock and want to hold on to the long position,
you could always start selling calls against it.

Use the formula for maximum loss discussed earlier. Calculate the
loss in the stock and the amount you paid for the put and add
them together for your maximum loss in this position. The
protective put has limited your loss.

Maximum Loss = (Stock Price – Strike Price) + Option Price

This protection will save you enough money when you pick a false
(wrong) bottom that you may, if you like, try to pick the bottom
again at a lower point. The exhaustion scenario, as described
here, is a perfect opportunity to apply the protective put
strategy.

As seen with the exhaustion example, the protective put strategy
is best used in situations where the stock has a potential for an
aggressive upside move and the chance of a big downside move.

Another potential opportunity for using the protective put is in
combination with Technical Analysis. Technical Analysis is the
study of charts, indicators oscillators, etc. Charting has
proven to be reasonably accurate in forecasting future stock
movements.

Stocks travel in cycles that can and do form repetitious
patterns. These patterns are predictable and detectable by the
use of any number of charts, indicators and oscillators.

Although there are many, many forms and styles of technical
analysis, they all have several similarities. The one we want to
focus on is the technical “break-out.” A break-out is described
as a movement of the stock where its price trades quickly through
and beyond an obvious “technical resistance” or resistance point.

For a bullish breakout, this level is at the very top of its
present trading range. Once through that level, the stock is
considered to have “broken out” of its trading range and will now
often trade higher, and establish a new higher trading range.

The “break-out” is normally a rapid, large upward movement that
usually offers an outstanding potential return if identified
properly and acted upon in a timely fashion. However, if the
break-out fails, the stock could trade back down to the bottom of
the previous trading range.

If this were to happen, you would have incurred a large loss
because you would have bought at the upper end of the previous
trading range. As you can see the “break-out” scenario is an
opportunity that has large potential rewards but can on occasion,
have a large downside risk.

However, if you were to apply a protective put strategy with the
stock purchase, you can drastically limit your downside exposure.
For instance, say you were to buy the 65 strike put for $2.00.
If the stock trades up to $75.00, you would make $9.00 if done
naked but only make $7.00 if done with the protective put.

This difference is the cost of the put. This $2.00 investment is
more than worth it should the stock go down. If the break-out
turns out to be a “false” break-out and the stock reverses and
trades down, your 65 put will allow you to sell your stock out at
$65.00 minus the $2.00 you paid for the put. This limits your
loss to $3.00 instead of a potential $8.00 loss. This is a much
better risk/reward scenario.

Most professional traders, including day traders and swing
traders can reap huge rewards for the protective put strategy.
The reason is in how most traders attain profits and losses.
Normally, successful traders make a little money on a consistent
basis. They make a little bit day in and day out. But when it
comes to losses, they lose in large chunks. They spend a month
building up profits only to lose that money in one day usually in
one stock. If a trader could figure out how to avoid even a
handful of these large losses, his or her profitability would
soar. My answer is to start using the protective put when buying
on breakouts and when bottom fishing.

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Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Sitcom Investing

A fickle stock market encourages good-humored mockery.

Recently, as I watched the premiere of a sitcom, an obvious omission breached television etiquette. Silence followed every exaggerated comedic set-up. There was no laugh track. Where were the premeditated giggles from the show's "audience?" At last, the viewer determines the funny moment.

It then occurred to me, the writers of this new show adopted an aspect used by investment news programs.

I will be the first to admit, in addition to the miscellaneous printed and electronic financial information, the television provides an abundance of supplemental financial news. However, the shows often leave me asking, "What's missing?" In addition, the shows may very well leave viewers with the ultimate responsibility, which segment is entertainment and which is practical advice.

Perhaps you may recognize one of the canned statements below that investment show gurus continuously utter. Although each may be applicable (and in may cases vital to successful financial planning), notice the missing "laugh tracks."

How many times have you heard "Invest For the Long Term?" The analyst may be leaving out "because I hope you forget my last appearance and the short term disaster I have caused for the viewers who actually acted on my recommendation." Each investor's long-term outlook is somewhat different for the other's and you should always review the guests' recommendations with caution. What is his or her reasoning for such revelation?

"Buy and Hold." The missing part: "because I have no idea of an exit strategy to recommend." True enough, the more successful investors are those who invest according to a well-planned strategy and stick to it. They generally hold onto their winners. There are, however, times that will dictate an exit strategy.

Finally, there's "Use Asset Allocation." The missing part: "because I cannot tell you which asset historically does better in this particular market environment." There are many ways to accomplish diversification in your portfolio and it does not always have to revolve around the division of stocks, bonds, and cash. Depending on your particular objectives, time horizons, and risks, an appropriate allocation may be derived from the use of just one type of asset. Either way, there are no guarantees when you place your money in the stock market and it is best to remind yourself of the risks of each investment. Try including real estate, collectibles and insurance products in your general financial plan.

We can all watch the appearance investment gurus make on financial shows. Perhaps we can include light-hearted follow-up statements as if we were watching a Rocky Horror film. We often enjoy the amusement provided by television personalities, however, it is important to review your investments regularly. Always examine your motive behind each buy and sell.

In actuality, your financial future is no laughing matter and should be guided with thorough commentary. Television shows come and go; your finances may one day be a legacy.

Wardlaw's belief is that familiar life elements best illustrate practical investment strategies; not typical investment jargon. With that philosophy, the author assists financial planners/advisors, brokerage firms, periodicals, and other investment information syndicates create informative and entertaining articles. For comments and questions, please contact the author at tools2invest@yahoo.com

Poll Names Coin Laundries Best Investment For 2005

According to Morton Pollack, CEO of PWS, The Laundry Company and editor of the newsletter, “Historically, laundry owners have been a quiet group. Knowing they are onto a good thing, they’ve been pretty reticent. However, many now agree that it’s time for respect to paid to this powerful investment vehicle and we hope the poll will play a part”.

Coin Laundries have historically been a very attractive investment yielding strong returns regardless of the ups and downs of Wall Street and the economy. Deemed one of the top ten safest investments by the Small Business Administration and Dun and Bradstreet, neighborhood laundries offer a dependable ongoing 20 to 30% yearly return on cash invested, according to the Coin Laundry Association.

“Today’s modern laundries are all cash, no inventory businesses that offer great tax benefits and require modest oversight,” says Morton Pollack. “We believe they are the best part-time, investment venture available and their future looks even brighter. The demographics coin and card laundries serve are the fastest growing segments of the US population. With so many proven benefits, we weren’t sure whether Laundry Center MarketWatch should name today’s Card and Coin Laundries the Sexiest or Safest Investment for 2005. So, we are leaving it up to readers and the industry to vote for their choice via our free e-mail newsletter”.

To learn more about the coin laundry industry, to receive your free subscription to Laundry Center MarketWatch and to register your vote as to whether Coin laundries should be named the Sexiest or Safest Investment for 2005, visit www. Laundrycenter.info or call 1 877-45 LAUNDRY.

Ilene Fudim is a nationally recognized expert in the coin operated laundry industry and a contributing editor to the Laundry Center Marketwatch newsletter. She has been instrumental in helping launch many successful coin laundry businesses.

Monday, October 29, 2007

Landlording 101, Tricks of The Trade

Looking Inside Your Tenant’s Mind
Basic Mind-Reading Report 101 for Landlords

It goes without saying but I will say it anyway. The better you understand your tenants and their personal situation, the better you can serve their needs and your own. Notice that your needs come after your tenants. Always put your tenants’ needs before your own and they will buy real estate for you in return. That’s a fair trade. Take it!

Many cold-hearted, self-serving, money-grudging, wanna-be landlords don’t understand human nature. Let me tell you right now, if you can’t put yourself in another person’s shoes and see a problem from that person’s perspective with empathy, you will fail miserably in the “landlording” business and in life. Wise up!

Fear not. If your not quite sure what I’m talking about, here come the stories and details of how to be loved and adored by those kind people called tenants.

Let me first dispel the horror stories about landlording. If you follow my advice and teachings, you should have very few tales of woe to tell. You’ve heard the stories and they sound like this: Those damn lowlife tenants. They trashed our house, they disturbed the neighbors, they ruined our lawn, they were filthy pigs who never paid the rent on time, they never did what we told them to do and it cost us a fortune to get rid of them and repair our investment once they finally did move.

Well, guess whose fault that is. Yep, it is completely and unequivocally the fault of the so-called person that is calling themselves a landlord. The real name for this type of so-called landlord is uneducated dummy and because of these lazy fools the whole industry gets a bad rap!

There is a plus side to the scenario above and that is this: It sets up a perfect opportunity for you to do the exact opposite of the fools and create for yourself an unlimited market supply of excellent trouble-free tenants for life!

Tenants, believe it or not, are human beings. They are not animals or things to be mistreated, abused or taken advantage of. If you will prepare your rentals as if your mother was going to be moving in, your mindset would be realigned in short order. In effect, you will start looking at it from a compassionate point of view. You will not cut corners. You won’t let things go that need fixing. You will use more care, skill and diligence in preparing that dwelling for another decent human being to begin calling home. That’s what you want to achieve.

You want to provide a trouble-free, pleasurable, aesthetically pleasing, creature comfortable, needs fulfilling, safe, secure, affordable and convenient place to live. When you provide those things and screen the population, it’s like striking gold.

The process of getting good tenants begins in your mind. By that, I mean you have to educate yourself to be able to recognize value and acquire properties that are structurally sound, aesthetically pleasing, physically functional and provide safety, security, affordability, convenience and a feeling of pride in your tenant’s mind.

Sounds like a daunting task, doesn’t it? Well it’s not. In fact it is so simple to achieve that once you understand the process you won’t even have to think about it. It will come naturally to you. I promise you that this is true and I intend to prove it to you as well.

I absolutely guarantee that you can do it. So for now, just take my word for it as being a fact, because it is. Here’s an example of using a motto to align your thought process in relation to all the things I just said. Repeat the following:

Landlord’s Creed

I vow never to rent to someone else, something that I myself would not be happy living in.

Mansions not included!

Now apply that to every prospective property that you evaluate as a potential rental property investment. Human nature is immutable. We all have basic needs, wants, desires and expectations that include fear. When you remove fear and provide comfort and security, you will own your market.

So what you first have to do before you can be a great landlord is to find great places to rent to other people. I explain how to do this in the book at www.magicbullets, so I won’t go into it here.

The screening process is also outlined in that book as well. I will hit upon a few things that weren’t touched upon already in the processes in the main body of the book, so here are a few nuggets for you now.

The following observations are done after you have already performed the formal screening procedures. I’m rushing you up to the day that your face-to-face meeting occurs with the tenants who have passed your telephone interviews and have succeeded in getting an appointment with you to see your wonderful rental.

Now, here are some things that your uneducated dummy-type landlords can’t begin to recognize, plan for or evaluate when it does appear before their very eyes.

As soon as your potential renter shows up to view your property, take note of the time. Are they on time? Can they keep their first promise to you? Can they follow directions? If their late, did they get lost? I’m sure you gave them good directions and also used landmarks like churches, stores or monuments, so they could find you easily. If they can’t follow simple directions, do you think a lease agreement and those directions are going to be any easier? No, they are harder to follow.

O.K. They showed up on time. This says they respect your time, are able to follow directions and are serious about finding a nice place to live. How did they arrive, on foot, by bike, bus, cab, truck, motorcycle or tractor-trailer? Preferably they arrived in a clean, well-kept passenger car that is in a clean condition.

Now who was driving the vehicle? If it’s a couple are they both going to be renting or is your tenant without wheels. Let’s assume your prospect drives up in their own car. It runs fine so you won’t have cars on blocks and a parts yard for a front lawn in six months when they buy more cheap junk to get around with.

So the car looks O.K. on the outside but how about the interior of the car? Do they smoke and have smashed down McDonalds bags pushed so far into the floorboards that it now resembles carpet? Does this vehicle look like a home on wheels, with garbage bags filled with clothes, a crying baby and a cat in the back window? Watch out if you see this type of telltale evidence. I don’t think I need to paint the picture of what will result if you miss this investigative step.

Pickup trucks with camper-shells can also be loaded to the gunnels with personal effects, including small zoo animals. I encourage you to get a look back there, too!

The bottom line here is people will generally treat your property the way they treat their own, if you’re lucky! So see how they’ve done with their own stuff up to this point and choose wisely based on intuition, gut-feeling and physical evidence.

So the car inspection is over now. How are the appearances of the folks? Are they clean and well groomed? Do they seem to fit the profile of what you had envisioned over the phone interviews or are they 180 degrees out? Have they successfully fooled you or deceived you into believing something else up to this point? Now that they have appeared before you, is it blatantly evident that these persons are con artists?

If you get an uneasy feeling within the first few minutes of meeting these people, don’t brush it off as just some crazy thought. That’s your self-preservation instinct operating and you better listen to it. The book, Magic Bullets will help to protect you, so do not fear. Use this information to protect yourself from the events that lead to horror stories. Don’t give it another thought. Let’s get on with our interview, shall we?

So far they are on time. They have a good clean car and they appear to be honest and decent people who indeed do give you the same impression you developed over the phone. In fact, these people are really more than you expected. Yes, if you’ve done it right that will often be your experience and it is almost always a pleasure and privilege to rent to such high quality individuals.

Have you noticed something about the process here? There has been no mention of race, religion, national origin, sex, age or marital status. That is discrimination based on federally protected human rights and it’s against the law to discriminate on those issues. This includes the handicapped and a few others groups I may have overlooked.

My point is simply this: If they meet all the criteria that makes for a good quality tenant, than you would be ruling out a potentially excellent long-term tenant based on preconceived notions and that is dummy landlording in the first degree! So don’t discriminate on basic human rights issues.

So many people screw this process up. They also make mistakes by choosing management companies to do this highly developed type of intuitive researched and planned-for event. I honestly know of no management companies who can be as thorough as an owner who takes the time to protect their own interests in this way.

I don’t care how much management companies protest about the above statement. The fact of the matter is, they are not you, so they can never find a tenant that satisfies your own personal preferences the way you can.

I like to personally screen potential tenants because in all cases, I have total control and that’s what real estate is all about – control!

Think of the opposite of control. That would be the stock market for the small investor. The way I see it, I don’t want to be on the sidelines rooting for someone else to make money for me or more often, hoping they don’t lose it, steal it or mismanage it to my certain demise.

With the way I approach real estate, it is a 100% guarantee every single time that I am going to outsmart, outwit, outperform, over deliver and under promise to the point that I crush my competition. I am in a league of my own.

My tenants are the winners and they know it, too. What kind of loyalty do you think develops in the minds’ of people that look to me for protection? It stands as a testimony and irrefutable, self-evident, empirical fact that I care enough about the people who have entrusted me with their welfare, their time, their money and their trust to deliver on my promises. My tenants don’t move. They either pass away due to old age or they end up buying it from me when I want to sell it. It happens that way all the time.

So think again when you hear a dummy landlord talking about all the trouble they had and then ask yourself one question. Did they read Magic Bullets before they became a landlord? It’s 100% certain they did not. If they had, then their tenants would have loved them and paid for their real estate time and again, and made them rich beyond their wildest expectations…

Snap out of it! Hey, are you with me? OK, your back. Good let’s get back to reality here. What I do works and the only thing about landlording I don’t like is cashing all those darned checks. I’m not kidding. Bank tellers look at you like your some kind of thief because you have so many checks to cash.

Here are a few things that you won’t find out unless you have been around a while but I’m going to save you from the pain of learning the hard way. Now of course you’re going to do everything right by following my advice in real estate but there are a lot of things I don’t know. Yes, I admit it. I don’t know everything but I do know what I’m going to tell you about next and that is…drum roll, please! Watch out for real estate investment property that comes with existing tenants! Here’s why. In general, the new owner takes the property subject to the existing lease and rights of the tenant or tenants. Most often, whatever existing lease or rental agreement that was made with the previous owner will remain in effect.

What could happen if you don’t thoroughly review existing tenants lease agreements? What if the previous owner rented a unit to his good-for-nothing, drug-addicted brother for $1.00 a month for the next five years? That’s a valid lease. You may take them to court for misrepresentation but it’s going to cost you lost rent, lost sleep and maybe your safety.

Anyway, that’s an extreme example of an intentionally designed below-market rent lease agreement but it illustrates my point. Here’s another. Let’s say you’re getting a great deal and you buy it, and find out the reason the owner sold it to you was because the tenants were very difficult and had him over a barrel. And all the while, they are paying lower than average rents and complaining about everything. Now you get them and you can’t raise the rent and they refuse to move. Here comes your eviction lawyer and you have attorney’s fees and more lost rent to boot.

My point is this: Make the seller get rid of bad tenants before you close on the deal. Do a pre-closing inspection and personally walk through the empty apartment, house, condo, trailer or doghouse yourself. Bring extra locks or call a locksmith and have the locks changed the day before closing. An honest seller will not have a problem with that so long as the title company holds those keys until your check is accepted at the closing table.

The lesson here is it’s always better to install your own tenants because you control the process from start to finish. Don’t follow a dummy landlord or by default, you could be a dummy, too!

Remember this too: When you install new tenants, you are generally going to get a higher rent from the property because inflation creeps along and landlords have a hard time raising rents on people. I have seen 10-15 year long-term tenants paying the same price for 15 years. You will go broke if you let that happen.

Adjust your rents accordingly every time you fill a vacant unit and if people want to renew their leases, then inform them of an economic reality that currently exists called inflation, and you are just keeping up with it! The Annual Consumer Price Index may be used as a reference. If they don’t understand, they have an option and that would be to go look for a similar rental to yours at a lower price. If you have followed my advice, this elusive lower rental price will not be found and your tenants will be grateful to you for renting out such a clean place at the new price-adjusted rate.

There is a lot of garbage held out for rent and prices may be lower, but no one wants to live in a pigsty with lime green shag carpet and Brady Bunch orange counter tops, where the roaches tell you what to do.

So the lesson here: Encourage balking tenants to find something comparable to yours at a lower price. If they find it, let them go. Odds are, they won’t. After all I told you, it’s often next to impossible, if you’re a hands-on owner. There is no 10% fee to management companies either. So you can even ask 5% less than investors who use professional management to do their job. So many ways to slaughter your competition…so little time!

Dan Auito is a dual-licensed real estate agent and appraisal assistant. In addition to being a 20-year veteran of the United States Coast Guard, Dan has also founded a non-profit drug prevention corporation, a real estate consulting group and is the author of “Magic Bullets in Real Estate.” This 300-page power-packed book (due out in late Sept 2004) comes with a website (on line in late Sept 2004) that further supports its readers. Dan lives with his wife Kimberly and their two children, Brandon and Briana, on the emerald isle of Kodiak Island, Alaska.

Dan may be reached at http://www.magicbullets.com Call 1 907 481-6300 or write 1619 Three Sisters Way Kodiak AK 99615

Trading Is Not Rocket Science!

Despite what some people may lead you to believe; day trading, swing trading and trend trading is not anywhere as difficult as they would like you to think. It really boils down to two key components.

First, you have to have an approach that helps you identify trades that have a consistently high probability of making money. Once you have this you must exploit this "edge" over and over again.

The only way to do this is to use the necessary discipline to never deviate from your system. The minute you start tinkering or tweaking things is when you will lose your edge!!!

You will most likely be tempted to do this after you have had a few losers. This is the time however to keep your focus and remind yourself that your system has a statistical advantage that has held up over time.

Think about this for a moment? If you go gambling in Las Vegas and can even gain a 1% advantage over the house you can make a literal fortune by exploiting this edge. That little one percent advantage can make the casino lose a whole lot of money over time. As a matter of fact the minute they notice that you have a viable system they will label you a cheat and ban you from the playing. It sure is a good thing that can't happen to traders!

Now consider what happens if you have a trading strategy that produces trades that go into the money more than 60 to 80% of the time?

Now the second step to success is to manage your emotions. Two of the biggest indicators of a trader who is not managing their emotions are FEAR & GREED. These two emotions will wipe out every trader over time, both experienced and inexperienced alike.

Let's talk about them for a minute...

FEAR: Fear of losing money or fear of being wrong is what causes traders to have this emotion.

"Trading with scared money" often causes the fear of losing money. This is when a trader is risking money that should be used for the rent, food, children's education etc. If this is the case the only solution is to find additional funds that you are willing to put at risk. This helps to put the mind at ease and reduces the fear.

Fear of being wrong is simply the part in all of us that just doesn't like to be wrong. The cure for this is to simply realize and accept that losses are part of this game. Think about this? A baseball player only need hit the ball once for every three times at the plate and this will get him into the Hall of Fame.

I feel this every once in a while and remind myself that... My approach for trading has both historically and real-time produced consistent winning trades. This gives me the confidence to step up to the plate and keep swinging. Also I tell myself that the only way to earn the big money is to get into the game.

GREED: Traders who are greedy are often the exact opposite of the ones who are fearful. They have no fear and this can get them into trouble. They will tend to over trade, not follow the rules and basically "wing it". Sometimes this will work, but it always ends up back-firing.

One of the biggest problems when greed sets in is the inability to know when to take profits. These traders are so bent on making a killing that they are never happy. If they are up 10, 20 or 30% they don't even think about cashing out, as they want more. This often leads to the inability to see the trade turning against then and they will allow winning trades to turn into big losing ones.

One solution for this is to realize that making 3, 5, 10 or 15% on a regular short time basis adds up really quick. I know for me personally, once I was confident in my methodology, I no longer felt the occasional feelings of greed. Now I don't worry about "going for broke" as I know that there is always another good trade waiting for me.

Dr. Jeffrey Wilde, a trading veteran with 16 years of experience is a trading coach to over 3500 traders in 63 countries. His new blog http://www.askjeffwilde.com offers free trading articles, tips and advice. He also teaches a variety of courses found at http://www.win-at-trading.com and http://www.fastforexprofits.com

Saturday, October 27, 2007

Asset Location - Increase Investing Returns & Reduce Your Taxes

Location – Once the holy grail only for real estate investors is fast becoming the mantra for every stock, bond, and mutual fund investor. Experts and studies now recognize managing asset location is second only to asset allocation in determining the success of your investment returns.

Importance of Asset Location:
Asset location is a cornerstone to success for a simple reason. Taxable accounts differ from tax-deferred accounts {401(k), IRA and similar retirement}. Taxable accounts require you to pay income tax on every dividend and capital gain generated by your investments. This tax substantially reduces the amount of reinvestment and annual investment growth. On the other hand, retirement accounts defer taxes allowing returns to compound without penalty and at a substantially faster rate. Asset location refers to the optimal placement of securities between taxable and tax-deferred accounts. Good choices reward investors with long-term compounding and significantly higher returns. Poor choices, or more commonly, no choice, leads to below average results.

The effects are striking. Investors lose up to 20% of their after-tax returns by mislocating investments in the wrong type of account. So says a recent study from three finance professors Robert Dammon and Chester S. Spatt, of Carnegie Mellon University, and Harold H. Zhang of the University of North Carolina. The professors analyzed two asset classes, stocks and bonds, to determine suitability for investing within tax-deferred accounts. Their conclusion? Investors should keep equities in taxable accounts and bonds in tax-deferred accounts, to the greatest extent possible. Young investors stand the most to gain by following such advice. Three of the most powerful elements of investing -- dividends, deferred taxes, and compounding interest – combine for a staggering effect to retirement income.

Unfortunately, the typical investor never takes advantage of all three benefits. A recent Federal Reserve survey shows Americans invest their taxable and tax-deferred accounts with identical securities. People focus on individual accounts rather than their entire portfolio. They ignore the benefits of allocating investments among different accounts and wind up with several accounts all holding the exact same thing. To their detriment, nearly half of all investors own bonds in taxable accounts and stocks in tax-deferred accounts.

Why asset location works:
Tax efficiency is more important than ever. Two recent changes have driven asset location strategy. Last year’s tax cut, the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003, slashed top tax rates on dividends from 35% to 15%. Those same dividends, however, would be taxed at the ordinary rate (up to 35%) when withdrawn from a retirement account. The new law further cut taxes on capital gains from 20% to 15%. Since most equity investments generate returns from both dividends and capital gains, investors realize lower tax bills when holding stocks or equity mutual funds within a taxable account.

Similarly, fixed-income investments (e.g. bonds) and real estate trusts generate a regular flow of cash. These interest payments are subject to the same ordinary income tax rates of up to 35%. A tax-deferred retirement account provides investors with the best possible shelter for such securities and their resulting profits.

Which investment goes where?
Fortunately, your asset location strategy can be relatively simple. Place highly taxed assets in the tax-deferred accounts first. Anything left over can go into the taxable accounts. From the academic study, the professors concluded with three general rules to help with the decision process. First, locate taxable bonds, real estate investment trusts (REITs) and related mutual funds into tax-deferred accounts. Second, locate stocks and equity mutual funds into taxable accounts – even if you are an active trader and generate substantial short-term gains. Third, never buy a municipal bond until you completely fill tax-deferred accounts with taxable bonds or REITs. The combination of compounding and deferring taxes on the higher yields of corporate bonds is. If all this sounds a little overwhelming, just consult the table below.

Table 1: Asset Locations for High Returns and Minimal Taxes.

TAXABLE ACCOUNTS
-- Stocks
-- Tax-free or tax-deferred bonds (munis, treasuries, and savings bonds)
-- Mutual funds investing in stocks or tax-advantaged bonds

TAX-DEFERRED ACCOUNTS (traditional IRAs, 401(k)s, and deferred annuities)
-- Taxable bonds (corporates, zeroes, TIPS, and high yields)
-- REITS (Real Estate Investment Trusts)
-- Mutual funds investing in taxable bonds or REITS

Two exceptions are worth noting. First, qualified distributions from Roth IRAs are tax free. Generally speaking, place assets with the greatest potential for returns inside a Roth. Second, if a 401(k) or IRA holds all (or nearly all) your investment money, throw this article away and focus only on asset allocation.

Summary:
You, as an informed investor, can take control over taxes and related expenses to your investment returns. Allocate your investments to reduce risk and increase returns. Locate your investments by managing all your accounts to minimize the tax drag on your financial returns.

Tim Olson

TheAssetAdvisor.com

Mr. Olson is the editor of The Asset Advisor, a financial investment service providing proven strategies for no-load mutual fund investors. He brings 26 years of education and experience from Stanford University, Ernst & Young financial consulting, personal wealth management, and venture capital investing.

Asset Allocation: Critical to Your Investment Success

Asset allocation is a critical component of investing success. Both research and academic studies show asset allocation to be single most significant factor in determining your financial goals. Allocation influences both the total long-term return and risk of your investment portfolio. Other factors such as security selection and market timing account for a very small percentage of your investment returns. Unfortunately, the most important decision to achieving financial success is also the least understood.

What is asset allocation? Most people confuse asset allocation with diversification. They believe it has something to do with making multiple investments among groups of similar assets. Ask investors to list the assets in which they would consider investing. Typical answers include "growth stocks", "bonds", "large caps", and sometimes "international stocks." But their diversification is limited to selection within one asset. For example, someone choosing to purchase technology stocks may invest in five or six companies – but all within the technology industry. This reduces risk if one of the companies should fail, but is useless when the technology industry (or entire stock market) slumps.

Asset allocation goes beyond diversification to reduce risk across all type of financial assets (cash, stocks, bonds, commodities, real estate, and even venture capital or hedge funds). Investments and risk can be divided further into subcategories of stocks including large-cap, mid-cap, small-cap, value vs. growth, and international vs. domestic. Similarly, bonds can be divided into subcategories of short-term, and long-term, tax-free, high yield, convertible, emerging markets, floating rate, and international vs. domestic. Multiple combinations allow investors to allocate their portfolios into a number of asset classes and categories.

Adding high risk asset classes and investments to a portfolio may seem risky. But combining assets that behave differently, or even opposite to each other, both increases the return and lowers the risk of an entire portfolio. For example, international stocks are considered “riskier” than domestic stocks. Yet, we often see the prices of U.S. stocks go up on the same day prices of international stocks go down -- and vice versa. We call this negative correlation. Profits from one asset balance the losses from another. Combining international and U.S. stocks actually lowers investment risk by reducing daily price swings of our entire portfolio.

History demonstrates many markets exhibit similar negative price correlation. In a slumping economy, bonds vastly outperform stocks as interest rates drop. In an overheating economy, inflation helps generate stellar returns in the commodities market. But timing such events is unpredictable, and the variability of returns represents risk to any investor. Choosing to purchase only stocks, only bonds, or any single asset class increases the risk of losing money if that market underperforms.

The power of asset allocation comes from reducing risk while increasing returns. Reducing risk by combining multiple asset classes, however, is not a simple process. While each asset has its own unique measure of risk, many assets share similar price behavior (their prices go up and down together in any market). Combining such complimentary investments increase the risk of wild changes in price. Trade-offs between asset risk and expected return must also be considered. High yield assets typically experience high volatility, or large changes in price. These assets must be balanced by investments with lower rates of return to protect against large declines in value.

Successful asset allocation requires finding the proper mix of assets to balance reward with an acceptable level of risk. Proper allocation planning requires asset research and investment analysis. Fortunately, tools are available to assist the independent investor. Popular financial websites offers independent investors help with educational links and software to build portfolio allocations based on a survey of financial questions. For advanced investors, many books have been written to painstakingly explain the theory and practice of asset allocation – also called MPT (Modern Portfolio Theory). Casual investors can purchase mutual funds specifically designed to automate asset allocation based on an expected retirement date. Pragmatic investors can explore the many financial planners and advisory services that offer asset allocation portfolios specific to their needs.

Consider your options carefully. Each solution offers its own set of advantages and disadvantages. Pick a style that closely reflects your own. Just how important is asset allocation? It’s the single largest determinant of your long-term financial success.

Tim Olson

TheAssetAdvisor.com
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Mr. Olson is the editor of The Asset Advisor, a financial investment service providing proven strategies for no-load mutual fund investors. He brings 26 years of education and experience from Stanford University, Ernst & Young, personal wealth management, and venture capital investing.

Thursday, October 25, 2007

Wit and Wisdom on Money, Wall Street and Success - Part #4

Can you concisely summarize your investment philosophy in a few sentences? My experience is that most people can't. The quotes that follow are diamonds that offer a real powerful education in the world of Risk Management. They have had a profound impact in my life. I pass them along hoping they achieve a similar effect on your investments. Enjoy!

1) "Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No 2: Never forget Rule No. 1." -

-Warren Buffett

2) "Large profits can be made in common stocks. Large losses can be made in common stocks."

-Peter Lynch

3) “A fool and his money are soon parted.”

-Unknown

4) “A fool and his money were lucky to get together in the first place.”

-W.C. Fields

5) "You should invest in a business that even a fool can run, because someday a fool will."

- Warren Buffett

6) "The key in life is to figure out who to be the bat boy for."

-Warren Buffett

7) “Let Wall Street have a nightmare and the whole country has to help them get back to bed again.” - Will Rogers, The Autobiography of Will Rogers

8) “There are two fools in every market. One asks too little, the other asks too much.” - Russian Proverb

9) “The elements of good trading: (1) cutting losses, (2) cutting losses, and (3) cutting losses. If you can follow these three rules, you may have a chance.” -Ed Seykota

10) "That market doesn't care whether you are IN or OUT! With that being the case, my question is who are you competing against? Most people will answer 'everyone else' my response is 'look in the mirror.'" - Harald Anderson Analyst at eOptionsTrader.com

Harald Anderson is the founder and Chief Analyst of eOptionsTrader.com a leading online resource of Options Trading Information. He writes regularly for financial publications on Risk Management and Trading Strategies. His goal in life is to become the kind of person that his dog already thinks he is. http://www.eOptionsTrader.com.

Remembering TEOTWAWKI and Learning from It

Its only been about 5 years since we had major scares in the marketplace regarding Y2K. You might recall that many computer systems were not programmed to be able to understand the change from 1999 to 2000. There was a tremendous amount of panic created by those who were convinced that as the clock hit midnight on on New Years Eve 2000 that we were going to enter the Dark Ages.

By my analysis this never occured....unless I slept through it and nobody bothered to wake me up! (Note to self: Make sure Staff wakes me up when Y2K occurs!)

The word we are supposed to learn from and understand is; TEOTWAWKI....(The End Of The World As We Know It ) It was a word created by the Y2K scare.

I think there is a very profound lesson to be learned from the Y2K scare. That being that forecasting is pretty much worthless. The real issue with trading as with life itself is to manage risk. Risk can be defined many ways but usually it involves not being prepared for the future and embracing an opinion.

The one advantage of living in a free society is that we are fortunate enough to be exposed to numerous viewpoints on a daily basis. As traders we must learn to constantly differentiate the difference between FACT and OPINION and determine how new data can affect us.

For those who never learn to do this, The End of The World As We Know It will reflect itself in their portfolios. For the rest of us all we can learn to do is MANAGE RISK. It is the only trading secret there is.

There are two schools of thought in trading.... TEOTWAWKI and Risk Management. You make the choice.

The only constant in life is change. Don't forecast. Manage your RISK.

Dowjonesfully,
-Harald Anderson
http://www.eOptionsTrader.com.

Harald Anderson is the founder and Chief Analyst of eOptionsTrader.com a leading online resource of Options Trading Information. He writes regularly for financial publications on Risk Management and Trading Strategies. His goal in life is to become the kind of person that his dog already thinks he is. http://www.eOptionsTrader.com.

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Understanding The Real Rate of Return!

There is one indicator more than any other which determines the health of an economy and it is the Real Rate of Return. Furthermore this is the simplest of all indicators to understand because it determines the safety of assets. Next time you hear the TALKING HEADS discussing the nuances of the markets, filter what they say through your own understanding of the Real Rate of Return.

The Real Rate of Return is the one number that determines the safety of principal. It is calculated by taking the current BOND YIELD and subtracting the expected INFLATION rate from it. The result is the REAL return on giaranteed money from the government.

Interest Rates are on the rise as we have been expecting and this pressure has put a tremendous amount of pressure on the stock market. The essential simplicity at work here is very, very basic. If Interest rates on Bonds are yielding 5.14% and inflation is forecasted at 5%. The difference is the REAL RATE of RETURN, (in this instance we are speaking about .14%). The REAL RATE of RETURN is what sparks major rallies and declines on Wall Street.

The reason for this is that the Bond market is the largest financial market in the world. There are literally trillions of dollars invested in debt denominated assets. These investors are primarily interested in the security of their principal and taking as minimal risk as possible. They historically have been thrilled with REAL RATES of RETURNS that would be in the 2% - 5% annually. During the 1970's this indicator went NEGATIVE for a while indicating INFLATION was rising faster than interest rates and BOND INVESTORS actually had substantial negative returns. During this time there was much "screaming and gnashing of teeth."

It has always been my estimation that Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan's key task is to keep the REAL RATE of RETURN as high as possible. HE has been extremely successful at doing this. If you read back over any history of the financial markets you would be WISE to view events through this indicator. The economic climate becomes remarkably different and people's opinions change dramatically when the REAL RATE of RETURN on the most SECURE investments is threatened.

A thorough understanding of this simplicity is necessary for success in any kind of investing as IT is the basic building block from which all other analysis is based. Although it is always difficult to forecast what will happen in the future, the one factor you can count on is that when THE REAL RATE OF RETURN is falling there is much SWEAT on the brows of Money Managers who monitor the trillions of dollars entrusted to them.

At this point KEEP YOUR EYES on this indicator and make your own forecast of INFLATION. You'll realize that your ANALYSIS can be better than the Big Boys.

Let's be careful other there!

Dowjonesfully,
-Harald Anderson
http://www.eOptionsTrader.com.

Harald Anderson is the founder and Chief Analyst of eOptionsTrader.com a leading online resource of Options Trading Information. He writes regularly for financial publications on Risk Management and Trading Strategies. His goal in life is to become the kind of person that his dog already thinks he is. http://www.eOptionsTrader.com.

Options Education: Financing the Calendar!

As a trader, one of the key things that I try to consciously do is to cultivate my instincts by talking with other traders and investors as often as possible. It still amazes me how large the divergence of opinion that exists regarding what people believe will unfold as we enter the new millennium. Many very respected names are literally predicting an economic earthquake that will measure a 10 on the Richter scale while others having looked at the exact same research claim that the consequences will be very mild. As a trader I have to evaluate the data and develop a strategy that I feel not only gives me an edge but allows for a great deal of error while still being low risk!

In his book, "Business Without Economists" author William J. Hudson submits a theory worthy of every traders consideration. (Particularly now with Y2K just around the corner) He states:

1) The demand for answers will always be greater than the supply.

2) Therefore, the price for answers will be high.

3) Therefore, a very large supply of answers will emerge.

4) Therefore, most answers will be false, especially when tested against reality.

I have this STATEMENT posted on my computer as a reminder to myself that markets are very humbling mechanisms. The key question that we as traders must continuously ask ourselves with regards to whatever trading strategy we enter into is, "What if I am right? And What if I am Wrong?"

As I assess the economic landscape and scan the marketplace for trading opportunities there is one fact that I must pay attention to: The NAME of the GAME is Managing RISK!

With this in mind, let's evaluate some of the important facts:

Many of the Commodity Markets have bounced sharply from their twenty to thirty year lows.

When I cross reference this FACT with the REALITY that INFLATION is back in the economy, it creates some very interesting trading opportunities for the OPTION savvy trader. The key to any trading strategy in my opinion is that it HAS to be low risk because there are so many possible outcomes that may occur.

The purpose of this strategy is to eliminate the need for timing the market by developing a method minimizing my exposure to loss. Before I provide you with the mechanics of this tactic let me illustrate an outlandish possibility so that we can get clear on a traders definition of RISK. Let's say that you are convinced that on March 1, 2005 that you think that Gold is going to be trading at $3,000 dollars an ounce. (I did say outlandish!) Based upon this scenario even if you wholeheartedly disagree, how could you trade this viewpoint and still take very little risk? Most people think that RISK is defined as BEING RIGHT or WRONG on the outcome of a trade. However, a risk sensitive trader is only concerned with their exposure to chance of LOSS.

If you thought that Gold was going to be trading $3,000 an ounce you could enter into the marketplace and very inexpensively purchase a couple of Call Options that would give you the right to purchase Gold at $500 an ounce. In this instance, the most that you could lose is the money that you put up to purchase the options and you would have the RIGHT but not the obligation to purchase Gold at $500 between now and March. However, just because you have LIMITED RISK you STILL have a great deal of EXPOSURE to LOSS. Reason being, that if GOLD does not get up to $500 you would lose all of the money that you put up to purchase the options.

The way that a professional would trade this scenario is that he would finance the trade through OPTION SELLING. When you SELL an OPTION you are in effect creating an OBLIGATION that you are forced to abide by contractually. For example if you SELL a $500 December Gold Call and receive money you have in effect agreed to deliver Gold to the option purchaser at a price of $500 between now and December 2004.

As a seller of this option, the most that you can make is the premium that you collected and your upside RISK is theoretically unlimited. If Gold is trading at $800 an ounce come December 2004 and you have not offset this option you are obligated to make delivery of Gold to the Option purchaser at the originally agreed upon price of $500 an ounce. Should this occur you would in effect have a loss of $300 per ounce on each contract that you sold. Not very attractive, especially since each Gold contract is 100 ounces in size. The loss becomes $30,000 per contract. That is a lot of risk!

The way to minimize RISK is to SPREAD it off against other OPPOSITE Options positions.

In the above example, let's say that a trader purchased 1 March $500 Gold call Option for a premium payment of $6.00 an ounce ($600). Each Gold contract is 100 ounces so this trader would be paying $600 per option . The RISK here is very clearly defined as $600. However, if this same trader now SOLD (1) GOLD December $500 Gold Call Option (NOTE THAT THE DECEMBER OPTION WILL EXPIRE BEFORE the March Option) and collected a premium payment of $300 they have in effect reduced their initial risk to the difference between the $600 that they paid out and the $300 that they collected, or $300.

Let me outline what this trader has done. They have obligated themselves to make delivery of 100 ounces of Gold at a price of $500 an ounce between now and December and simultaneously they have the right but not the obligation to own 100 ounces of Gold at $500 an ounce between now and March. They have established a BULLISH CALENDAR position by SELLING a Call option in a nearby month and using the money that they collected in the sale of that option to finance their purchases of the Call Option in the deferred option expiration month.

What this strategy is in effect saying is that it is the traders opinion that Gold will make its move after December but before March. Although it does not appear very exciting now, should this anticipated disruption occur in that time frame a trader that positioned themselves in this style would be sitting in the drivers seat. Essentially they would be looking at a maximum risk exposure of $300 with the possibility of unlimited upside potential. (YES, I realize that with Gold at $430 at present time that possibility appears extremely remote.) However, it is this kind of trading tactic that makes a great deal of sense in markets that are trading at historical lows.

The key to successful trading is to minimize your risk as you acquire more information. The closer you get to option expiration the more information you will have regarding the feasibility of this tactic. The key however is that you played the game without exposing yourself to a great deal of DOWNSIDE. That my friends is the path to long term success in any highly leveraged transaction. As William J. Hudson stated, "Most answers will be false, especially when tested against reality!" Worth thinking about.

Just one more way to swing for the fences without taking a great deal of risk.

STUDY AWAY and let's be careful out there!

Dowjonesfully-

-Harald Anderson
http://www.eOptionsTrader.com.

THE RISK OF TRADING IS SUBSTANTIAL, THEREFORE ONLY "RISK" FUNDS SHOULD BE USED. The valuation of such may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by anyone that you will profit.

Harald Anderson is the founder and Chief Analyst of eOptionsTrader.com a leading online resource of Options Trading Information. He writes regularly for financial publications on Risk Management and Trading Strategies. His goal in life is to become the kind of person that his dog already thinks he is. http://www.eOptionsTrader.com.

Investing 101: Risk Terminology - BETA

About thirty years ago, statisticians armed with all of their statistical theories began to confront the financial markets. A handful of useful tools emerged that the average investor should be familiar with when they look to purchase stocks.

One secret that people "in the know" use is "BETA". "Beta" is a number which reflects how volatile a stock has been relative to the market. This number is also quoted on most quotation services so it is easy to get to, but I have often found that it is never defined. A BETA of 1.00 means that on average, a stock has traditionally matched the markets swings both on the upside and on the downside. A BETA greater than 1.00 reflects above average market volatility, and a BETA of less than 1.00 indicates below average market volatility. When a BETA is less than zero it indicates that the stock moves contrary to the general market, going down in bull markets and rising in bear markets.. It used to be the case that Gold mining stocks would have negative betas. Internet stocks for example have very high betas.

Many of the analysts that cross your TV screen and make recommendations use BETA as their primary screening device in searching for suitable investments. So the next time your broker calls with an investment recommendation, ask him what the BETA is and then relish the silence on the other end of the phone. Then send him a copy of this article!

Dowjonesfully,
-Harald Anderson
http://www.eOptionsTrader.com

Harald Anderson is the founder and Chief Analyst of eOptionsTrader.com a leading online resource of Options Trading Information. He writes regularly for financial publications on Risk Management and Trading Strategies. His goal in life is to become the kind of person that his dog already thinks he is. http://www.eOptionsTrader.com.

Thursday, October 18, 2007

Wit and Wisdom on Money, Wall Street and Success - Part #2

Here are ten more WISDOM packed GEMS that ooffer very unqiue insights to the world of trading and investing.

These quotes promote a philosophy which is readily understandable and sometimes hysterical.

In my 25+ years of investing I have collected hundreds of quotes related to Wisdom, Wall Street and Success. I submit this small selection with the hopes that it will enlighten the forces required for your future financial success. Enjoy!

1) “If 40 million people say a foolish thing, it does not become a wise one.”

- W. Somerset Maugham

2) “One thousand dollars left to earn interest at 8% a year will grow to $43 quadrillion in 400 years, but the first hundred years are the hardest.”

Sidney Homer, A History of Interest Rates

3) “Everytime history repeats itself, the price goes up.”

-Anonymous

4) “In all recorded history, there has not been one economist who has had to worry about where the the next meal would come from.”

-Peter Drucker

5) “A good trader has to have three things: a chronic inability to accept things at face value, to feel continuously unsettled, and to have humility.

-Michael Steinhardt

6) “Don’t confuse brains with a bull market.”

-Humphrey Neill

7) “Financial genius is a rising stock market.”

-John Kenneth Galbraith

8) “The purpose of a market is to facilitate trade.”

-J. Peter Steidlemayer

9) "Buy high, sell higher."

-William O'Neil

10) “Manage Your Risk or It Will Manage You!”

-Harald Anderson – Analyst at eOptionsTrader.com

Harald Anderson is the founder and Chief Analyst of eOptionsTrader.com a leading online resource of Options Trading Information. He writes regularly for financial publications on Risk Management and Trading Strategies. His goal in life is to become the kind of person that his dog already thinks he is. http://www.eOptionsTrader.com.

Wit and Wisdom on Money, Wall Street and Success - Part #1

I love to collect quotes as they concisely promote a philosophy which is readily understandable.

In my 25+ years of investing I have collected hundreds of quotes related to Wisdom, Wall Street and Success. I submit this small selection with the hopes that it will enlighten the forces required for your future financial success. Enjoy!

1) “Money really isn’t that important. Is a guy with fifty million dollars happier than a guy with forty eight million dollars?”

- Milton Berle

2) “With money in your pocket, you are wise and you are handsome and you sing well too.”

-Yiddish Proverb

3) “Money is always there, but the pockets change.”

- Gertrude Stein

4) “Spend at least as much time researching a stock as you would choosing a refrigerator.”

- Peter Lynch

5) “Wall Street has a uniquely hysterical way of thinking the world will end tomorrow but be fully recovered in the long run, then a few years later believing the immediate future is rosy but that the long term stinks.”

- Kenneth L. Fisher, Wall Street Waltz

6) “Central Bankers are brought up pulling the legs off ants.”

- Paul Volker, Former Federal Reserve Chairman

Quoted by William Grieder, Secrets of the Temple

7) “Good judgement is usually the result of experience and experience frequently is the result of bad judgement.”

- Robert Lovell

Quoted by Robert Sobel, Panic on Wall Street

8) “When you realize that you are riding a dead horse the best strategy is to dismount.”

- Sioux Indian Proverb

9) “To know and not to do is not yet to know.”

- Zen Saying

10) “Amateurs Focus On Rewards! Professionals Focus on Risk!”

-Harald Anderson – Analyst and founder eOptionsTrader.com

Harald Anderson is the founder and Chief Analyst of eOptionsTrader.com a leading online resource of Options Trading Information. He writes regularly for financial publications on Risk Management and Trading Strategies. His goal in life is to become the kind of person that his dog already thinks he is. http://www.eOptionsTrader.com.

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

How to Analyze the Veracity of Investment Newsletters

When trying to analyze whether a promotional ad for an investment newsletter or a market timing investment trading system is worthy of investigation, the following questions should be asked:

Does the strategy have a track record? Without this you are really allowing your emotions to be in play. All of us want to believe that if someone says something it must be true. Yet the sad fact is the truth is probably just the opposite. Most ads and promotions are put in print for self interests first, and all else second. One has to view anything on the web with a skeptical eye. The minimum that an investment strategy should give you is a previous track record. The longer the track record is the better. Something that has worked for a matter of months is usually not long enough in the trading world to be considered successful. Some promoters do not release their track records because they say that “past performance is not an indication of future results”. This is true but certainly no performance is not an indication of future results either. Some promoters do not release their track records because they say “we used to do a track record but subscribers got upset if the strategy lost money when they subscribed even though it made money over a yearly period.” That may also be true but it is also part of the game. Subscribers can not expect to make money from day one when trading a long term strategy. However, that should be self evident in the track record. And some promoters do not release their track records simply because they don’t have one or they have a bad one. It’s as simple as that no matter what they say.

Is the track record that they are promoting in real time or was it simulated in a computer based on past data? What does this really mean? Real time means that the trading signals that were used to produce the track record results were actually generated at that specific moment in time. In reality. Most track records on the investment web sites are not real time even when they say they are. Even if they did not use a computer and it was done by hand, if the data taken from the last five years but the web site is only a year old then it can’t be so. Why is this so important? Because trading is not trading if human emotions are removed. No greed, no complacency, no panic, no hysteria. Almost all computer-generated trading programs fail miserably when actually implemented because either the data was too short a time period or the human factor was ignored. That is assuming the human that input the data did it without human emotion. I once had an acquaintance who told me he had a system that returned 80% per month for the last 6 months. He said he implemented it 6 months in real time. I asked how much he had invested in this strategy. He said nothing because he was paper trading. I said that there is no such thing. He proceeded to tell me what paper trading was. I replied that I knew what he thought paper trading was but it is not trading because when you paper trade your emotions are not in play. Human greed and ego has a way of making you believe something to be real without looking objectively at the data. But once actual real money is at risk the complexion of the situation dramatically changes.

How can you tell if the track is in real time if they lie about it being in real time? This is not always easy but there are some basic tell tale signs. If it is a short term system that risks very little and trades often, say 10-50 times per month. Yet it has an 80-90% trade success ratio, which is almost impossible statistically. Most day traders and position traders are doing well if they are winning 40-50% of the time. If they risk more and do not use tight stops, then the win loss ratio goes up but the size of the drawdowns or the size of the largest loss has to go up. Longer term trader may have a slightly better win loss ratio but only if their risk is also larger. To make a general statement, the larger the win loss ratio is the more I would be skeptical.

What if the track record is a combination of partly historically back tested signals and partly real time signals. How should I analyze that? The first thing to look at is if the win loss ratio has changed dramatically over the track record time period. For example, if it is a 5 year time period, and the promoter claims that the trade signals went live 2 years ago yet the win loss ratio changed dramatically only 6 months ago, beware. The hardest thing to detect on the web is when you’re being conned about a hypothetical track record because there is no real way to tell when a web sites track record was edited deleted or revised. Some web sites use an independent tracking site but there are no real ways for a consumer to know other than that.

I hope that the previous ideas will help to determine fact from fiction in the world of investment newsletter promotions.

John McKeon
Rye,NH

info@buypanic.com http://www.buypanic.com

Is a SEP Plan Right For Your Business

A SEP is a special type of IRA. Under a SEP plan the employer creates an IRA account for each eligible employee, hence the name SEP-IRA. A SEP is funded solely with employer contributions. Employees do not make contributions to their SEP-IRA retirement account. Any money that goes into a SEP automatically belongs to the employee. Thus, the employee has the right to take his SEP IRA account money with him whenever he stops working for the company.

Any size business can establish a SEP, but the SEP retirement plan is utilized mostly by the self-employed and the small business with few employees. The SEP IRA rules dictate that if the business contributes for one employee, (i.e., the owner), then the business must contribute proportionately for all of the employees. With few exceptions, anyone who works for the business must be included in the SEP. However, you can exclude from participating in the SEP plan anyone who:

• Has not worked for the company during three out of the last five years.

• Has not reached age 21 during the year for which contributions are made.

• Received less than $450 in compensation (subject to cost-of-living adjustments) during the year.

SEP IRA contributions to each employee for 2004 cannot exceed the lesser of $41,000 or 25% of pay for W2 recipients (20% of income for sole proprietors). The SEP IRA contribution limit goes up to $42,000 for 2005, and is subject to cost-of-living adjustments for later years. SEP-IRA rules do not provide for additional catch-up contributions for those 50 years old or over.

A growing number of self-employed individuals with no employees are abandoning the SEP-IRA for a newer type of retirement plan called the Solo 401(k) or Self-Employed 401(k). The two main reasons for the switch are 1) they can generally contribute much more to a Solo 401(k) than they can under a SEP IRA, and 2) Loans are allowed under a Solo 401(k), whereas loans are prohibited under a SEP-IRA.

Example: Henry, age 52, a realtor received $60,000 in compensation from self-employment income in 2004. For 2004, he could contribute a maximum of $27,152 in a Solo 401(k) versus a maximum of $11,152 under a SEP IRA.

However, the Solo 401(k) does not work for businesses with employees. Thus, if your company plans to hire employees or currently has a few employees, the SEP IRA may be your best choice as a retirement plan that is inexpensive and simple to operate.

Daniel Lamaute, CEO of Lamaute Capital, Inc. (http://www.InvestSafe.com) specializes in setting up retirement plans. You may visit http://www.investsafe.com to access a free calculator that will help you estimate what your maximum contribution might be under different plans.

Monday, October 15, 2007

Value Investing

By definition, value investing is the process of selecting stocks that trade for less than their intrinsic value. A value investor typically selects stocks with lower than average price-to-book or price-to-earning ratios. Of course, it is not nearly this simple. Value investing is the corner stone of long-term growth. Those who practice it survive the ups and downs of the market and are more likely to emerge wealthy than those who ride the market, in principle, due to the higher quality of the companies falling under the prerequisites of the value investor. Value investing is essentially concerned with getting the most profit at the lowest cost. The basis of value is profit. Value investing is an investment style which favors good stocks at great prices over great stocks at good prices. Value investor extraordinaire Warren Buffett has used this style to become a billionaire.

It's important to keep in mind that value investing is not concerned with how much the price of a stock has risen or fallen necessarily, but rather what is the "intrinsic" or inherent value of the stock, and is it currently trading below that price, i.e. at a discount to it's intrinsic value. The important point here is that when looking at stocks that are trading at or above their intrinsic value, the only hope for gaining value is based on future events, since the stock price already represents what the company is worth. However, when dealing with stocks that are undervalued, or available at a discount, unforeseen events are unimportant in that without any new earnings or additional profits, the shares are already "poised" to return to that inherent value which they have.

The question now, of course, is "why would stock prices not always reflect the true value of the company and the intrinsic value of its shares?" In short, value investors believe that share prices are frequently wrong as indicators of the underlying value of the company and its shares. The efficient market theory suggests that share prices always reflect all available information about a company, and value investors refute this with the idea that investment opportunities are created by disagreements between the actual stock prices, and the calculated intrinsic value of those stocks.

Finding Value Stocks

Value investing is based on the answers to two simple questions:

1. What is the actual value of this company?

2. Can its shares be purchased for less than the actual (intrinsic) value?

Clearly, the important point here is, "how is the intrinsic value accurately determined?" An important point is that companies may be undervalued and overvalued regardless of what the overall markets are doing. Every investor should be aware of and prepared for the inherent market volatility, and the simple fact that stock prices will fluctuate, sometimes quite significantly. Benjamin Graham has often said that if investors cannot be prepared to accept a 50% decline in value without becoming riddled with panic, then investing may not be for them...or rather, successful investing, as it often takes significant losses in a particular security before gains are made, due to the idea that value investors do not try to time the market, and are focused on the underlying fundamentals of the companies. Furthermore, the quality of the companies targeted by the value investors' screening methods should be, over the long term, less volatile and susceptible to market "panic" than the average stock.

This is also a two way road of sorts. On one hand, there is no sense in worrying about depressions, upturns, and recoveries due to the underlying quality of the value investments. On the other hand, investments should only be made in companies which can flourish and do well in any market environment. Doing solid investment research and making equally solid investment decisions will take investors much further than trying to forecast the markets.

How Many Different Stocks?

In terms of diversification, there are many discrepancies over exactly how many different stocks a solid portfolio should be made up of. My personal view is that there should not be as many stock as normally make up a mutual fund. Many will disagree with this, but what it's worth, I think that owning a portfolio of 100, 200, or even more companies not only serves to limit risk, but it really limits the possibility for reward as well. Also, as Warren Buffett has said many times, the more companies you own, the less you know about each one.

As I write this, there are 42 stocks in our recommended portfolio. This number may very well grow in the coming months, as it may decrease in number, but one thing to keep in mind is, out of the thousands of companies available for purchase, only a very small percentage meet the stringent requirements of the diligent value investor. This is both a blessing and a curse. Very often, there is simply nothing to buy, and this is fine. The trap to avoid falling into is to lower your requirements for a stock when there simply isn't anything meeting the normal requirements. This is how many an investor has fallen into making poor investment decisions, putting money into companies not really adequate for their respective portfolio, and it will certainly have a long term effect on gains.

David Pakman has been writing about politics and investing for years now, and runs the websites http://www.heartheissues.com and http://pakman.thevividedge.com

Tyranosaurus Rex

Everyone knows T Rex was the most fearsome of all dinosaurs. He could and did kill everything in his path for food or maybe stupid meanness. His brain was very small and he did not survive.

There is a T-Rex among us today and it is disguised, but it is killing us in another way. This T-Rex is killing and eating our retirement portfolios. You may have noticed your stock account has lost some of its value during the past 3 years. Something or someone is nibbling away at it. It has gotten so bad that many people don’t even want to look at their statements every month. Is there a way to keep the beast, whatever its name, from completely eating everything? Yes, there is.

Currently there is an advance in the stock market and you have been told by the talking heads on CNBC-TV that the bull market has resumed and it is best to "put whatever cash you might have into the market. Don’t lose this opportunity to make back what you have lost".

This is a very sneaky T-Rex. It is out in the bushes and it may not have seen you yet. If you still currently own any equities you want to protect them from the beast. If this is a new bull market you may want to participate. OK, buy something, but you must know where to run to hide should the T-Rex come out again. How?

Now, I said now, you must decide how much you are willing to risk from here, not where you were 3 years ago. Don’t try to get “even”. You can’t. As this market rises you should be following every stock you own with an open stop-loss order. It could be 8%, 10%, 15%. Whatever you feel comfortable with. Do not try to outsmart the beast. Listen for his return and have your protection in place so it will automatically be triggered when T-Rex returns.

None of us knows how long you will be able to graze in the green pastures. It may only be days, but could be months or longer. If you are cautious the monster will not get you. The market itself will tell you when to run for shelter. No guessing. That is the wisdom of a stop-loss protection.

Take a few moments to review your stock and mutual fund holdings of 2000. Look up the price at that time for each issue. If you had placed loss protection on each one how much would you have saved?

In a bear market the best offense is a good defense. Don’t let T-Rex get you.

Al Thomas' best selling book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter and receive his market letter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know. Copyright 2004

Saturday, October 13, 2007

Lobster Trapping for Investment Ideas

Recently, my family and I took a trip to Maine to visit relatives. During our stay, we toured the rocky shore lines and took in the beautiful architecture of the old towns.

One sunny morning, three generations of Wardlaws boarded a lobster boat and set out on a guided lobster trapping excursion.

We quickly learned lobstermen lead a life of hard work and regulations.

Over the course of many years, Maine's lobstermen and state officials have established certain criteria to protect lobsters and allow for greater development. With the rules, lobstermen look for "keepers."

A "keeper" is a lobster that measures between 3.25 and 5 inches from its eye socket to the end of its back shell. In addition to the precise measurements, the lobster cannot carry eggs nor can it have a notch in its tail (indicating it is a breeding female). The notch is carved from prior lobstermen who observed the lobster's breeding.

If the lobster does not fit the criteria set forth, it is discarded and placed back in the waters.

As an investor, you constantly look for "keepers." At your disposal is a wealth of information to determine the quality of a position.

Depending on your predetermined goals (including risk tolerances and time horizons), you may use a number of measurement tools. If the position does not fit such benchmarks, you may consider moving on to a more appropriate position.

For example, among the many rules of measurement, an investor may look toward a mutual fund's beta. Of course the fund's management, its fees, asset allocations and historical performance should play a role as well.

For bonds, an investor may consider its maturity, the coupon, its yield to maturity (or call), price, and rating. An investor must also determine the type of bond. Do you prefer a municipal, treasury, or corporate bond?

And with regards to stocks, if you have been an investor for any number of years, you know the drill. Between fundamental and technical analysis, you have several traps to pull from the waters.

It is important to know the criteria that is appropriate for your portfolio. Remember, some positions may be keepers while others may be discarded.

Wardlaw has been involved in the fields of investments and insurance for over twelve years. The author's belief is that familiar life elements best illustrate practical investment strategies; not typical investment jargon. For comments and questions, please contact the author at tools2invest@yahoo.com

Evaluating A Money Manager

Scams and frauds are designed to take your money through false promises and phony claims. Money management is supposedly designed to increase your net worth. Sometimes these two worlds meet and the results are not in your favor, i.e., you have a considerable decrease in net worth.

The information in this article won't keep future money managers honest but it will help you find the one who is right for your situation. There are four criteria you must consider before you give your money to anyone to manage.

1) Philosophy-- This is the thought theology used by the money manager to make your money grow. In other words, does (s)he focus on stocks, options, mutual funds, annuities, a blend of investment vehicles, etc.? Does this philosophy coincide with your risk tolerance? If stocks are too risky, a manager concentrating in that arena isn't for you. The philosophy also points you to their performance.

2) Performance-- We all know the markets are not stagnant. They go up, they go down. No investment manager can predict the market with absolute certainty. But, they should perform well, or even above average, in their specialty. For example, a stock focused money manager in today's market environment should have performance numbers that would make even Warren Buffet take notice. You want as long a performance record as possbile. To be fair, one market cycle should give you a decent indication of the manager's performance in his/her area(s) of expertise.

3) Process-- This is the means the manager uses to select securities for the portfolios. For example, does (s)he rely
only on in house research or does (s)he incorporate research
from outside sources? If so, who are they and on what frequency are they used?

4) Personnel-- Besides wanting to know the manager's experience, you'd be wise to learn all you could about the folks working in the office. Who actually manages the portfolio? His/her experience? How long has (s)he been in business? Who will manage your account when (s)he is out of the office, on vacation, on business?

Some people would say cost is one of the criteria. I say it is, but to a lesser degree. In over 30 years in this business, I can guarantee that paying the highest commission did not necessarily result in receiving the best advice. Paying the lowest commission did not necessarily result in receiving the worst advice.

Cost comes in the form of fees and commissions. ALL money managers charge. Cost, initially, should not be in your criteria because it often becomes the ONLY determining factor. That will skewer your thinking and could result in not having a
winning team working for you. Make the above four parameters your
primary criteria and cost will take care of itself.

How? You will be quoted a charge. If you are not comfortable with that price, negotiate. All fees and commissions are negotiable. If the manager refuses to negotiate, then and only then, make cost a member of the criteria team.

This article won't solve all of the money management problems or costs associated therewith. However, it'll at least start you thinking in the right direction and keepyour money in your pocket until you are ready to hand it over.

2004 (c) This article may not be reprinted without permission of the author who can be reached at tom-koziol@excite.com

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Friday, October 12, 2007

The Federal Reserve recently raised its target federal funds rate for the first time since March 2000. This could be just the tip of the iceberg, thou

If it seems as if all investors are

selling, who is buying?

If trading has become entertainment

for you, it may be time to refocus

on profits.

If your stock has reached an annual

low, can it go any lower?

If your stock has reached an annual

high, can it go any higher?

If all the television analysts jumped

off a bridge, would anyone care?

If your portfolio is based solely on

fundamental analysis, perhaps it

is time to learn technical analysis.

If I said you had a beautiful portfolio,

would you hold it against an index?

If you are tired of losing value on the

long side, perhaps its time to learn

both sides of the market.

If you do not have a written financial

plan, you should.

If you could put aside $205 at the

beginning of each month for thirty-

five years, with an 11% annualized

return you may save over $1

million.

If you have stopped looking at your

portfolio statements, does that mean

your game plan is off?

If a fool and his money are easily

separated, who introduced the two?

If buy and hold is your philosophy,

why do you need a broker?

If a tree falls in the forest, does it ruin

the stock market for the day?

If someone invented a computer

program for investments that proved

100% correct all the time, we would

never know about it.

If you think the market capitulated,

you are not in a state of selling

hysteria.

If 1,000,000 lemmings jump, can they

all be wrong?

If you want to know what Greenspan

thinks about economics, count the

times he smiles.

If you expect nothing of your

portfolio, you will not be

disappointed.

If you are a rational investor, can you

benefit from an irrational market?

If you managed your money like the

government, you would take money

from your neighbor and spend it on

stock options that expire this week.

If you are confused with the opinions

of the media, create your own.

Wardlaw has been involved in the fields of investments and insurance for over twelve years. The author's belief is that familiar life elements best illustrate practical investment strategies; not typical investment jargon. For comments and questions, please contact the author at tools2invest@yahoo.com.